Who will form the next government in Punjab?
The state is headed for a quadrangular contest for the first time in post-militancy Punjab. A SWOT analysis of the four parties in the fray
With the victorious farmers coming back home, a big issue concerning the rural population is off the hook and the state’s first Dalit chief minister, Charanjit Channi, is on a roll trying to pull in the Dalit votes. It’s expected that in the first or early second week of January, the Election Commission of India may announce the dates for polls in Punjab, along with four other states.
For the first time in post-militancy Punjab, the state is heading for a four-cornered contest. The Congress, despite replacing Capt Amarinder Singh as chief minister, continues to face anti-incumbency and massive internal factionalism.
Although the freebies, benefits and promises are building up the political noise, Punjab’s big political issues like the sacrilege instances, conversions by Christian evangelical groups, distress in the rural economy, and the collapsing industry are also finding many takers. Many of the leaders of the farm unions are also thinking of contesting polls or at least play the role of kingmakers.
The conventional parties are still battling with their own issues. The Sukhbir Badal-led Akali Dal (SAD) has split with the BJP and shifted its stance to support the farm agitation but has still not been able to appease the irate Panthic voters. Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP is pumping in resources, but hasn’t yet been able to pick up momentum. The exodus of AAP MLAs and the central leadership overshadowing the campaign has dented its credibility. The BJP, along with their new ally, Amarinder Singh’s PLC (Punjab Lok Congress), is banking on the votes from urban centres and pockets of rural Punjab.
Here is a SWOT analysis of what is working and what isn’t for these political combinations:
AAP
Advantages
a) Anti-incumbency against the Congress and disenchantment towards Akali Dal can make AAP a natural choice in various parts of the state.
b) The return of farm unions can give them a boost, as many of the Left-oriented union leaders are keen on fighting polls on an AAP ticket.
c) The factionalism in the Congress could benefit AAP, as many voters and leaders, especially in the Malwa region see AAP as a natural alternative
Challenges
a) Doesn’t have a credible face to lead the campaign. Sangrur MP Bhagwant Mann has influence around his pocket borough, but not across the state.
b) Has a poor track record as opposition party in the state.
c) AAP is left with only half of 20 MLAs (who won in 2017).
d) AAP’s footprint is limited to some districts in Malwa region. Last time, it didn’t have any impact in regions like Majha and Doaba.
Akali Dal
Advantages
a) Sukhbir Badal is trying to bring the dominant Jat Sikh community back into the SAD fold
b) Jat Sikh leaders like Sukhjinder Randhawa, Pratap Bajwa, Navjot Sidhu discomfited by the arrival of Charanjit Channi, a non-Jat Sikh, as CM. The return of farm unions brightens the prospect of Panthic unions returning to the Akali fold. The non-Akali Jat Sikh factions are also coming back to the Akalis.
c) Sukhbir is already actively in campaign mode. Candidates too have been declared
d) Badal finished third in 2017 but has remained the face of the opposition
Challenges
a) Campaign yet to build momentum.
b) The Badal & Majithia duo continues to face opposition from religious outfits.
c) The Akali Dal leadership is BJP’s first target while poaching.
Congress
Advantages
a) After the exit of Amarinder Singh, Congress is trying to pursue non-Jat Sikh politics.
b) There are attempts to build on the reverse polarisation caused by farm unions among Dalits and upper-caste Hindus. Channi has come out with schemes to lure them.
c) Lack of alternatives make new-look Congress a good choice.
Challenges
a) Confused leadership, confused campaign and confused messaging is making things complex for Congress.
b) Party high command is hedging on who will be CM candidate. Channi vs Sidhu is creating more embarrassment and factionalism.
c) No clarity on whether Congress wants to take up Jat Sikh politics or wants to stick with the old combination.
d) Navjot Singh Sidhu. The motormouth Punjab PCC chief continues to behave and speak like the opposition party. His speeches have already alienated a sizeable section of the Hindu community. His love-hate relationship with Channi is also creating a furore among the Dalits.
e) The recent sacrilege incidents at Golden Temple Amritsar and at Kapurthala has put the present Congress regime in a tight spot.
BJP
Advantages
a) Post-repeal of farm laws, the BJP is aggressively pushing a Punjab plan and has improved acceptance among Jat Sikhs in the state.
b) The return of farm unions has ensured that BJP’s national leaders can move freely in Punjab and work to consolidate the upper caste Hindu and Dalit voter base.
c) The party is freely poaching leaders from AAP, Congress and Akali Dal.
d) A possible alliance with Amarinder Singh and Sukhdev Dhindsa & Ranjit Singh Barhampura led Akali Dal faction has improved their chances in urban centres.
e) BJP is looking to contest 70 seats. And it’s prime focus is 45 urban seats, 31 of them now held by the Congress.
f) Brand Modi is still strong among the Hindus. Divorce with the Akali Dal could help the BJP consolidate Hindu votes
Challenges
a) Party doesn’t have pan-state presence, strength limited to Majha and Doaba regions. It’s also the last party to start the poll campaign
b) Repeal of farm laws has calmed the anger among the Jat Sikh community, but the BJP is still seen with suspicion
c) Allies Amarinder, Dhindsa and Barhampura all are in their 80s. Doesn’t have much appeal among the youth.
